COT Silver Report - March 27, 2015
The XAU is an index of gold and silver stocks. It has been hammered hard since the gold and silver peaks in 2011. The XAU bottomed in November 2014 below 62 at a 14 year low, down approximately 73% from its 2011 high at approximately 230. As of Friday March 20 it closed at 69.27.
Silver reversed sharply higher over the past week or so, surging dramatically. This was just after it had successfully retested major secular lows, ramping the odds this strong buying is the vanguard of a long-overdue major new upleg. As usual, silver’s coming gains will be fueled by gold’s own advance. As the yellow metal mean reverts higher initially on heavy futures short covering, capital will flock back to silver.
Money and wealth are a different matter, yet we have the same collective denial. Many consider the pursuit a sport, but no one understands the high-risk probability of being eaten alive. We are swimming in the collective waters of overvalued fantasies fueled by a currency that has been breaking since 1913, culminating in the parallel shift of power.
Following the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes last week, gold and silver have come alive, the gold price rising from a low of $1147 on 18th March to $1200 this morning and silver from $15.46 to $17.00, 4% and 10% increases respectively.
Before starting, I want to share a comment from “Reader Ed” – which frankly, is one of the nicest compliments I’ve received in my career. In my view, the Miles Franklin Blog is one of the best sources of information about the global economy, financial markets, and Precious Metals fundamentals around – in large part, because we focus on, plain and simple, on the unvarnished truth.
In our new book The Silver Manifesto, David Morgan and I not only discuss the debt bomb waiting to explode in most every western world economy but also the fact that the Fed will NEVER willingly hike interest rates by any material degree because (i) the monetary policy in place isn’t conducive to economic growth, instead promoting vast misallocations of capital and (ii) because the U.S. economy is a debt based economy which needs constant debt financing, the Fed would never hike interest rates as the cost of servicing the interest on newly acquired debt would spiral out of control, thereby causing deficit spending to go through the roof. Substantially higher deficit spending would necessarily require even more debt accumulation and the cycle would repeat itself.
Here at the Miles Franklin Blog, we rarely – if ever – receive negative feedback. Which is quite a testament to the so-called “advice” we give – which I facetiously put in quotes, as we are not “advising” readers to do anything but seek truth; and with it, to do their own due diligence as to how to invest their capital.
Silver prices are largely set on the COMEX futures – paper silver. A company can post the margin and sell short thousands of contracts with no actual metal available thereby creating artificial supply. The reverse occurs when some company buys thousands of contracts. It is a paper game, but unfortunately it has tremendous influence on the price of real silver.
As an investor, I want to bet on the jockeys who win the most races, not just the best-looking horses. So, while I’m no Tom Peters or Stephen Covey, I’ve made a study of success over the last decade. The critical question for a metals investor: what does it takes to be a serially successful mine-finder?