I have a LOT to speak of today, mostly from the heart – as I have never been angrier at the state of the world, and those that have destroyed it for both our generation, and generations to come. To that end, I never would have thought so, but I’m actually rooting for Donald Trump now. As whether his brand of “change” is good or not – and most likely, it won’t be – at least it’s different than the political, economic, and social hells brought to us by the Democrats, Republicans, and others, worldwide, of their ilk.
The days of JP Morgan controlling the silver market may be numbered as a new player in the silver market has arrived. For the past several years, JP Morgan held the most silver on a public exchange in the world. While the LBMA may hold (or did hold) more silver, their stockpiles are not made public. Regardless, JP Morgan held the most silver at nearly 74 million oz (Moz) in its warehouse, up until recently.
Federal Reserve officials hinted at a rate hike as soon as next month, but that prospect did little to support the U.S. dollar or hinder precious metals. Gold and silver prices have surged to new highs for the year while the dollar made a new low.
The war for $1,300/oz – which gold, aside from a Cartel-capped blip 16 months ago – hasn’t traded at for nearly two years – is ON! The Cartel, fresh from having lost its 2½ month battle to defend its previous “line in the sand” at $1,250/oz – having taken their naked “commercial” short position to nearly a record high in the process – is sucking wind big time. Let alone in silver; in which their short position is literally at an all-time high, as they try to figure out whether their next “battle of the bulge” should be fought at $17.50 or $18.00.
The darker line is simply the index divided by its 200 day moving average. I have drawn a horizontal line through its most significant peaks occurring in June 1981, March 1985, November 2008 and March 2015. Looking more closely at these peaks, the 1981 peak heralded a mere 4 month decline in the Dollar, but the 1985 peak was the precursor to a 7 year decline and the 2008 one to a 3 year decline. It is the perhaps no surprise that the most recent peak last year has so far watched over a 13 month decline.
Royalty companies can often minimize political risk because they don’t normally deal directly with the governments of countries their partners are operating in. This is especially valuable when working with miners that operate in restrictive tax jurisdictions and under governments with high levels of corruption. Silver Wheaton’s contract with Brazilian miner Vale, for instance, stipulates that Vale is solely responsible for paying taxes in Brazil, which are among the highest in Latin America. Vancouver-based Silver Wheaton pays only Canadian taxes.
Well, the five-year anniversary of the “Sunday Night Paper Silver Massacre” came and left with a whimper – as despite the 141st “Sunday Night Sentiment” capping of the past 147 weekends; the Cartel has not been able to prevent gold from rising above $1,300/oz, which is where it stands as I edit just after Monday’s COMEX open. In fact, aside from a brief moment in early 2015 – before the Cartel orchestrated the final phase of the four-year “bear-market” that ended in December 2015 – gold hasn’t been above $1,300 for nearly two years.
On the US Dollar index chart, I have marked the two fractals (1 to 3). I have also indicated the relevant silver tops and bottoms to show how the patterns exist in similar conditions. Furthermore, if you look on the Dow chart, you will see that the Dow peaked just before point 3 on both patterns. If this comparison is justified, then we will see a big drop in the Dow and the US dollar index soon. This is consistent with my long-term analysis of the Dow and the US Dollar index. While this is happening silver, and gold will rise to phenomenal highs (which has already started).
The good news for the longer-term is that this action has at last broken it out from its long-term downtrend, but as we can see on the 6-year chart, it is now approaching a zone of strong resistance in the $18.50 - $19.50 zone, which, should it continue higher over the near-term, should call a halt to the advance. Should the dollar break down soon from its potential top, however, then both gold and silver could go into meltup mode, in which case silver could break smash through this resistance and continue considerably higher to the next major resistance in the $26 - $27.50 zone.
The interesting thing about the gains in these primary silver stocks is that they were not based upon their low cost or productivity per say. For example, Great Panther is one of the highest cost producers in the group last year, based on my analysis, but enjoyed the second best performance. Moreover, Alexco Resources shut down their only operating silver mine back at the end of 2013, but their stock price had the third best performance jumping 253%.